With nine goals in his initial seven league matches, City forward Erling Haaland has begun the season in spectacular form.
Even though this doesn't represent his strongest opening to a campaign - he scored 11 goals in his opening seven appearances in 2022-23 and double digits last year - it still puts him with a three-goal lead in the early running for this season's Premier League Golden Boot.
What makes this not one of his nine strikes have been penalties makes it all the more impressive.
What Makes Haaland Special
Of course, physical problems might significantly impact in the final top scorer outcome, but there are two key factors why Haaland is so heavily favored for the honor so soon in the campaign.
First, the total of conversions he has thus far netted - and, equally significant, the total and standard of scoring opportunities he's creating.
Furthermore, the slow start his regular challengers for the award have made.
Chance Quality Assessment
A attacker's expected goals metric (xG) signifies how many goals a English league attacker has historically scored from the number and quality of chances he has had.
This doesn't represent a figure arbitrarily chosen by data analysts, but by historical Premier League data.
When examining at footballers' expected goals in the Premier League so far this season from open play, the Norway forward is receiving significantly more quality chances to find the net than anyone else.
Actually, even if Haaland wasn't superior at converting opportunities than every other footballer in the division, he would nonetheless have netted more than twice as many goals as all other players.
Scoring Situation Assessment
This is illustrated by examining the number and quality of scoring situations that attackers have encountered in the Premier League so far.
Haaland has registered 29 attempts so far this season, a dozen more than every other footballer.
That is actually not that remarkable for him - he had previously registered more non-spot-kick efforts at this stage in the last two seasons (30 in the 2023-24 season and 34 in 2024-25).
However, what's exceptional even for Haaland is the quality of chances he has had this term. His efforts have had an chance quality metric of 0.27 per attempt.
This number represents is that players have historically converted the attempts he's taken at a 27 percent conversion rate.
Regarding attackers registering at ten or more efforts, only Stamford Bridge player Enzo Fernandez has had easier chances to convert per attempt - because of a several close-range conversions against West Ham United and Brighton.
The Norwegian's expected goals of 0.27 is considerably superior than the 0.17 xG per attempt he had at the beginning of the previous campaign.
To summarize, the scoring situations he has had in this campaign have been notably easier to find the net from in a reorganised City team than those at the opening of last term.
Past Performance Analysis
Beginning a campaign so impressively is, as previously stated, not unusual for Haaland. After seven games last season he had netted ten times - four more than any other player and six additional compared to Mohamed Salah.
However, it was the Anfield star who secured the scoring title with 29 conversions, a touchdown more than the Etihad attacker.
This season, while Haaland has opened with incredible momentum, Salah has scored half the number goals and had fifty percent fewer opportunities (xG) than at this stage last season.
In fact this has been the least productive beginning to a Premier League term the Pharaohs star has made.
Rivals' Slow Start
It is not just Salah who has begun modestly either. When examining at the top 11 scorers in the Premier League last season, Haaland has registered an equal amount goals as the additional ten attackers collectively so far.
Whether because of fitness issues - multiple prominent forwards - extended transfer dramas in Alexander Isak's case or just due to the fact that their clubs have faced difficulties (Bryan Mbeumo, Chris Wood, Ollie Watkins and Matheus Cunha), Haaland's potential challengers in the battle for the scoring title have failed to perform so far.
European Golden Shoe Race
Although the Norwegian appears the obvious frontrunner for the Premier League Golden Boot, what about the European Golden Shoe that is presented to the attacker netting the highest number in Europe's top-five leagues?
That contest is considerably more open at this early stage because two world-class strikers have also started in excellent condition, with 11 and nine goals respectively.
The circumstance Haaland has netted on numerous occasions and has the highest xG of the three players without yet taking any from the penalty spot renders him the frontrunner.
But since the two continental superstars are among the finest goal-scorers in continental soccer in terms of exceeding their expected goals, the battle continues intensely.
